Introducing the telecosm Analysis/Commentary George Gilder's new book, Telecosm, focuses on the big picture in communications. For him, technology passes from the microcosm -- processors, silicon chips, and electronic components -- to the telecosm -- where electromagnetic spectra, fiber optics, and bandwidth are key. In the telecosm, light serves as the conduit and the barrier to all communication. The story of the telecommunications revolution may postdate the computer revolution, but it starts approximately at the same time, with the discovery that science can use electromagnetic fields to convey data. Before computers, only the telegraph, telephone, radio, and television carried signals. Now, electronic engineers, fully aware of the potential of transistors and integrated circuits, are beginning to explore areas of the communication spectrum that don't rely on narrowband. These engineers are beginning to store waves of data in optics (especially, glass), and to use higher frequencies to convey certain kinds of information. Where once, processors gave the instructions, Gilder predicts that smart networks, hardwired to funnel different information in different ways, will do most of the work. What fiber can't handle, software and broadcast transmissions (wireless) will. Gilder foresees an age when abundant bandwidth will function as a commodity, just as steam power, coal, iron, and electricity have in the past, and when much of the work once performed by hardware (computers, routers, and switches) will be performed by software that resides on networks. Instead of deterministically designed devices doing narrowly defined tasks, probabilistic models will take over. This means that standards and software will form redundant and self-correcting loops that offer the precision once available only to analog devices. A cell phone, for example, through its self-correcting calculations, offers a reliability that begins to compete with the dumb terminals once distributed by Ma Bell. Likewise, the Ethernet, a loose network data standard, provides a degree of precision and reliability that has overtaken the Token Ring Network, a performance-based design. Prepare for the leap into the ethersphere, Gilder seems to be saying. Make way for the rain of data that will fill our information furrows, as soon as they are deep enough. Make way for abundant bandwidth that will overtake the meters of the telephone companies and software sellers. In short, make way for intelligent optics. Just how all these developments will come about isn't overwhelmingly clear, although the premise seems plausible. For one thing, the software that will effectively handle information conveyed entirely over fiber has yet to be invented. The Net, a seven-layer monster, will need to be fundamentally upgraded to handle the data-deluge Gilder heralds. But it probably will. In the meantime, the symptoms of change that Gilder explains to appropriate length and depth in Telecosm seem to be upon us. Indeed, photonics seem to be developing into a growth industry, and, as Gilder says, hardware seems to be beginning to soften and software to harden. Computer activity is becoming virtual, and network activity physical (based on laws of physics applied to optical fiber and the speed of light). The discovery of roundabouts through parallelism and feedback loops opens up opportunities for telecommunications companies. Unlike most prophets, George Gilder has gained respect in his own land. Perhaps his connections to Forbes magazine, his good business sense and encyclopedic know-how, combined with the strength of his information network have something to do with the success of his message. He also builds on a reputation earned through an earlier best selling book, Microcosm. For the time being, at least, all that Gilder writes is golden. December 6, 2000